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By Edmund L. Andrews The New York Times
SATURDAY, AUGUST 26, 2006
JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming The Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, urged governments Friday to help people cope with the disruptions of new competition arising from globalization and to ensure that the benefits of economic integration were sufficiently shared.
In a speech at the Fed's elite annual retreat here, Bernanke said the pace of globalization today is faster and more sweeping than at any other time in history, a trend that is forcing the Fed and other central banks to change the way they think about how they manage the world economy.
"The emergence of China, India and the former Communist-bloc countries implies that the greater part of the earth's population is now engaged, at least potentially, in the global economy," Bernanke said. "There are no historical antecedents for this development."
Governments and policy makers, he said, needed to acknowledge the downsides of the rapid pace of globalization in terms of lost jobs, disrupted livelihoods and wrenching change.
"The challenge for policy makers," he said, "is to ensure that the benefits of global economic integration are sufficiently wide-shared - for example, by helping displaced workers get the necessary training to take advantage of new opportunities - that a consensus for welfare-enhancing change can be obtained."
Previous expansions of global activity, from the Roman Empire to the opening of the Suez Canal and European colonialism, shared many common themes with the trends of today, he said. These included the role of new technologies in trade opportunities, and social and political backlashes from groups whose lives were disrupted by new competition.
Though he did not mention the practical implications for monetary policy and central banking, other experts gathered for the retreat were scrutinizing major changes in global capital movements between rich and poor countries.
One of the most startling changes, which has helped fuel American growth and keep interest rates low, is that the United States and other wealthy industrialized countries are attracting huge volumes of capital from poorer countries in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East.
"Today, the world's largest economy, that of the United States, runs a current account deficit, financed to a substantial extent by capital exports from emerging market nations," he said.
Bernanke has previously argued that the United States' large debt was merely the flip side of a "global savings glut" caused by the lack of investment opportunities in other countries.
Other analysts take a darker view. Kenneth Rogoff, an economist at Harvard University, warned in a paper at the retreat that the United States was becoming dependent on developing countries that may soon start using their excess savings for themselves.
"Even if these favorable trends continue, there are massive budget problems that most of the developed world is going to face as its populations age," Rogoff cautioned. The Fed and other central banks, he said, need to prepare for the "risk of an eventual slowing down or reversal" of the so-called savings glut.
Bernanke steered clear of that issue, and he stayed away from the battles at the top of the Fed's agenda - rising inflation, soaring energy prices, a plunging housing market and worries about a possible recession.
But he was blunt in declaring that the current pace of globalization, though part of a trend that is thousands of years old, is also something the world has never seen.
"The scale and pace of the current episode is unprecedented," he said. Though Columbus's voyage to North America ultimately transformed the world, he said, that change took centuries. By contrast, he said, the emergence of China as an export powerhouse has altered the world in less than 30 years.
The patterns of global trade and finance have changed as well, he said. The old distinction between "core" rich countries that exported manufactured goods and poorer "periphery" countries that exported natural resources has broken down.
Production is becoming more geographically fragmented, he said, citing chip makers like Advanced Micro Devices that do production in Texas and Germany and final processing in Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and China
In a speech at the Fed's elite annual retreat here, Bernanke said the pace of globalization today is faster and more sweeping than at any other time in history, a trend that is forcing the Fed and other central banks to change the way they think about how they manage the world economy.
"The emergence of China, India and the former Communist-bloc countries implies that the greater part of the earth's population is now engaged, at least potentially, in the global economy," Bernanke said. "There are no historical antecedents for this development."
Governments and policy makers, he said, needed to acknowledge the downsides of the rapid pace of globalization in terms of lost jobs, disrupted livelihoods and wrenching change.
"The challenge for policy makers," he said, "is to ensure that the benefits of global economic integration are sufficiently wide-shared - for example, by helping displaced workers get the necessary training to take advantage of new opportunities - that a consensus for welfare-enhancing change can be obtained."
Previous expansions of global activity, from the Roman Empire to the opening of the Suez Canal and European colonialism, shared many common themes with the trends of today, he said. These included the role of new technologies in trade opportunities, and social and political backlashes from groups whose lives were disrupted by new competition.
Though he did not mention the practical implications for monetary policy and central banking, other experts gathered for the retreat were scrutinizing major changes in global capital movements between rich and poor countries.
One of the most startling changes, which has helped fuel American growth and keep interest rates low, is that the United States and other wealthy industrialized countries are attracting huge volumes of capital from poorer countries in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East.
"Today, the world's largest economy, that of the United States, runs a current account deficit, financed to a substantial extent by capital exports from emerging market nations," he said.
Bernanke has previously argued that the United States' large debt was merely the flip side of a "global savings glut" caused by the lack of investment opportunities in other countries.
Other analysts take a darker view. Kenneth Rogoff, an economist at Harvard University, warned in a paper at the retreat that the United States was becoming dependent on developing countries that may soon start using their excess savings for themselves.
"Even if these favorable trends continue, there are massive budget problems that most of the developed world is going to face as its populations age," Rogoff cautioned. The Fed and other central banks, he said, need to prepare for the "risk of an eventual slowing down or reversal" of the so-called savings glut.
Bernanke steered clear of that issue, and he stayed away from the battles at the top of the Fed's agenda - rising inflation, soaring energy prices, a plunging housing market and worries about a possible recession.
But he was blunt in declaring that the current pace of globalization, though part of a trend that is thousands of years old, is also something the world has never seen.
"The scale and pace of the current episode is unprecedented," he said. Though Columbus's voyage to North America ultimately transformed the world, he said, that change took centuries. By contrast, he said, the emergence of China as an export powerhouse has altered the world in less than 30 years.
The patterns of global trade and finance have changed as well, he said. The old distinction between "core" rich countries that exported manufactured goods and poorer "periphery" countries that exported natural resources has broken down.
Production is becoming more geographically fragmented, he said, citing chip makers like Advanced Micro Devices that do production in Texas and Germany and final processing in Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and China
相關中文新聞如下:
柏南克：全球化利益面臨威脅 
編譯廖玉玲、劉煥彥／綜合二十五日電
美國聯邦準備理事會（Fed）主席柏南克25日表示，目前全球經濟正以前所未見的速度整合，提升生產力，並減少貧窮問題。但他隻字未提市場最關切的利率和經濟前景問題。
編譯廖玉玲、劉煥彥／綜合二十五日電
美國聯邦準備理事會（Fed）主席柏南克25日表示，目前全球經濟正以前所未見的速度整合，提升生產力，並減少貧窮問題。但他隻字未提市場最關切的利率和經濟前景問題。
柏南克在堪薩斯聯邦準備銀行25日舉辦的年會中，提醒決策者要確定全球化的利益讓多數人共享，以免引起保護主義者的不滿。
他說，未來幾年內，經濟和科技的改變可望進一步縮短人類生活的差距，提升生產力和生活水準，並減少全球的貧窮問題。
今年年會的主題是全球化及其對政策的影響。這是柏南克接任Fed主席來，首次在堪薩斯聯邦準備銀行年會上演說，但過程中他並沒有提到市場最關心的利率和經濟發展前景議題。
Fed本月上旬決定不升息，使聯邦資金利率維持在5.25%的水準。愈來愈多經濟學家推測，利率大概已經到頂點，不過接下來仍得看通貨膨脹和就業報告等經濟數據，才能判斷9月是否繼續升息。
柏南克在演說中提到，全球化雖然有種種優點，但卻也讓部分員工和企業有所爭執，權益受損的一方自然會抗拒改變，祭出保護主義的手段來表達意見。他認為近來全球關係緊張、恐怖主義陰影籠罩，都會威脅全球化的發展。
柏南克說：「決策者的挑戰，在於如何確保大家能共享全球經濟整合的好處，和在推動增進福祉的變革上達成共識。」
他指出，雖然要廣泛建立全球化的共識非常困難，但很值得努力以赴，因為全球經濟擴大整合的潛在利益確實龐大。
柏南克在25日的演說花很多篇幅回顧從羅馬帝國至今2,000年來的全球化，談到哥倫布的航海探險、英格蘭與荷蘭貿易公司的興起、亞當史密斯（Adam Smith）與李嘉圖（David Ricardo）經濟理論的發展，甚至16世紀反對貿易的馬丁路德（Martin Luther）。
【2006/08/26 經濟日報】
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