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  • 1月 28 週六 200617:39
  • The New York Times FRIDAY, JANUARY 27, 2006 Steel giant tries to get even bigger

Steel giant tries to get even bigger
 
By Heather Timmons The New York Times
 
FRIDAY, JANUARY 27, 2006
 
LONDON Lakshmi Mittal, the founder of the world's largest steel company, has never been bashful about his global ambitions, but he still shocked the industry on Friday with an unsolicited E18.6 billion bid for his biggest rival, Arcelor.
Mittal Steel's offer to Arcelor shareholders, worth $22.7 billion in cash and stock, works out to E28.21 a share, a 27 percent premium over the company's closing price on the Euronext exchange in Paris on Thursday.
A combination with Arcelor, itself the product of a merger of French, Spanish and Luxembourg companies, would create an even greater steel giant with a leading position in the Americas, Europe and Africa, annual revenue of nearly $70 billion and 320,000 employees.
"This is a great opportunity for us to take the steel industry to the next level," Mittal said at a news conference in London. "Our customers are becoming global, our suppliers are becoming global, everyone is looking for a stronger global player."
Mittal is the world's third-richest person, behind Bill Gates and Warren Buffett. Mittal's company has grown rapidly in recent years by buying up competitors, based on his longstanding belief that the industry should be consolidated to stem a historical cycle of boom and bust.
Nonetheless, Arcelor's management did not share in Mittal's excitement on Friday. The company said the deal had a "hostile character" and its board members met in the afternoon to decide whether to try to counteract it. Options for Arcelor are limited - the Mittal offer is contingent on its receiving just 50 percent of Arcelor's shares, and Arcelor shareholders are mainly institutions with few qualms about swapping one share for the next, analysts said.
There is no other steel company large enough to make an obvious "white knight," though Arcelor may try to make a deal of its own, to become too large to be swallowed by Mittal.
The markets reacted favorably to the offer. Arcelor's shares rose E6.32 to close at E28.54 on Friday, as investors bet that the deal would go through and that Mittal Steel would be forced to raise its price. Shares of Mittal, which is based in Rotterdam, rose E1.60 to close at E27.63 in Amsterdam.
If the deal does go through, Mittal Steel would sell its Canadian subsidiary, Dofasco, to ThyssenKrupp of Germany, even though Arcelor is offering a higher price for Dofasco. The Canadian company had been the target of a hotly contested bidding war, which ThyssenKrupp recently exited. ThyssenKrupp would pay 68 Canadian dollars, or $59, a share for Dofasco, less than Arcelor's winning bid of 71 dollars a share.
Mittal Steel estimates that it could achieve $1 billion in cost savings after cutting overlapping administrative and manufacturing units. Together, the companies would produce 115 million tons of steel a year, dwarfing their nearest competitor, Nippon Steel, which produces just over 30 million tons a year.
Combining the largest and second-largest companies would raise competition issues in most industries, but steel production is so globally fragmented that regulators are not expected to object. Together, Mittal and Arcelor, which is based in Luxembourg, would control just 10 percent of the total market.
Mittal is offering four Mittal shares and E35.25 in cash for every five Arcelor shares, or about one-quarter of the price in cash.
The company will probably be forced to raise its price to win Arcelor, analysts said, but it may not be able to raise that much more money. It is using a E5 billion bank loan from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup to finance the deal and will have $14 billion in debt if it closes.
Ratings agencies warned on Friday that Mittal's ratings were at risk if it paid too much. Mittal is highly rated for the steel industry, said Fitch Ratings in a note, but "there are numerous risks surrounding the acquisition plans, including the high likelihood the price will need to be raised."
Mittal said he had tried at first to make a friendly offer, and approached Arcelor's chief executive, Guy Dollé, on Jan. 13 about the prospect, but was rebuffed. Dollé "saw difficulties" with the plan, Mittal said. Dollé canceled their next meeting, because he had won the Dofasco bid, and then did not return another call, Mittal said.
Still, Mittal and his son Aditya Mittal, who is the company's chief financial officer, both said at the news conference that they would like Arcelor's management to become part of the new organization. The two also said they would honor all of Arcelor's existing agreement with its subsidiaries and staff, and that there would be no plant closings.
If the transaction goes through, the Mittal family will own 51 percent of the company, down from 88 percent.
Other Mittal investors said they welcomed the deal. "I'm very much in support of it," said Wilbur Ross, who sold his International Steel Group to Mittal last year and is now a shareholder and member of the company's board. "The industrial logic of the deal is impeccable."
Some French officials expressed concern about the bid, in part because they said they received the news on Friday morning with no warning. French politicians said they were worried about the loss of a European steel champion, even though the company is based in Luxembourg, because Arcelor employs many French workers and has deep roots in France.

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  • 個人分類:產業新聞
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  • 1月 28 週六 200615:54
  • 2006.01.28 中國時報 景氣連五綠 經濟報喜

資料來源:http://news.chinatimes.com/Chinatimes/newslist/newslist-content-forprint/0,4066,110507+112006012800165,00.html
2006.01.28  中國時報
景氣連五綠 經濟報喜
彭漣漪/台北報導

    經建會昨公布去年十二月景氣概況,景氣指標自去年中低點一路反彈向上,製造廠對短期景氣維持擴張步調,全球景氣趨向樂觀,預期今年全年經濟成長可望較去年佳。
    經建會昨公布去年十二月景氣概況,景氣對策信號亮起連續第五個月代表穩定的綠燈,雖然不及去年初連續五個月代表樂觀的黃藍燈,但代表當前表現的景氣同時指標比前月上小幅上升一%,代表未來表現的景氣領先指標也比前月小幅上升○.六%。由於出口、生產等實質面指標表現持續良好,金融面指標如股價指數及MIB亦繼續成長,景氣對策信號持續亮綠燈,綜合判斷分數為二十六分,比前月增加兩分。
    此外,包括核發建築物執照面積等七項目的領先指標,及包括製造業銷售值等六項目的同時指標均呈上揚,延續自去年中以來的反彈氣勢。去年十二月失業率也連續兩個月降至四%以下。
    經建會同時也針對製造商做產業景氣調查,十二月份廠商對未來三個月的短期景氣預估,表示將轉好的增加三個百分點,為十四%,表示將轉壞的減少三個百分點,為十八%,雖然看壞的稍多,但已從去年十月的二十五%高點反彈不少,表示廠商將維持擴張。
    不過值得注意的是,金融面的表現不佳,包括直接及間接金融變動率、票據交換及跨行通匯變動率已連續兩個月出現過熱現象,顯示雙卡問題帶來的金融面大地震威力還在擴散中。
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  • 個人分類:總體經濟新聞
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  • 1月 24 週二 200608:45
  • 中鋼二號高爐重生 產能躍進 2006/01/24 經濟日報

中鋼二號高爐重生 產能躍進
 ■ 記者林政鋒/高雄報導 中鋼董事長江耀宗(左)昨天從聖火隊成員接下火把,為二號高爐點火。記者林政鋒/攝影
 中鋼二號高爐拆除重砌歲修作業完成,昨(23)日舉行點火儀式,將可增加35萬公噸鐵水,今年中鋼銷售可望突破1,000萬公噸,競爭力再提升。中鋼建廠至今,共有四次高爐更新工程,其中一號高爐二次、二號及三號高爐各一次,但四次大歲修,都僅對高爐內襯作更新及局部設備翻修;而此次二號高爐更新,是將整座高爐解體,擴大容積,全面更新爐殼、出鐵間等設備,這種更新方式在國外鋼廠的案例不多,中鋼也是第一次,困難度比前四次更新工程更高。 中鋼董事長江耀宗昨天主持高爐點火儀式時說,二號高爐這次大修前,累計30多年來鐵水生產量達4,600萬公噸,已是全球頂尖水準,這次採取高難度的拆除重建作法,在短短100天內完成,顯示中鋼累積的高爐操作與更新技術能力已大幅度提升。 江耀宗指出,全新的二號高爐是一座自動化、省力化、電腦化及最具競爭力的新世紀高爐,開爐點火後,除保有鐵水原產能每年175萬公噸外,每年可再增加約35萬公噸鐵水量,對於提升中鋼業務競爭力,帶動本土相關產業發展將有很大助益。 江耀宗表示,鋼鐵工業在世界各國被視為國力象徵,中鋼是目前國內唯一的一貫作業鋼廠,粗鋼年產量1,100萬公噸,占台灣總產量一半。根據國際鋼鐵協會(IISI)統計,中鋼粗鋼產量在全球鋼廠中排名第16,但獲利率名列全球鋼廠前茅。 中鋼一號高爐於66年完工點火,當時鐵水年產量才140萬公噸,經過四個階段建廠與擴建,目前共有四座高爐,年產鐵水產量已突破1,000萬公噸,成長七倍之多。 中鋼表示,二號高爐重新啟用後,將使今年銷售量突破1,000萬公噸的機會大增,可望再創歷史新高紀錄;但近來因鋼價下滑,獲利可能從去年的650億元縮水為300億元左右。 【2006/01/24 經濟日報】
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  • 個人分類:產業新聞
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  • 1月 22 週日 200601:30
  • 轉貼:期權王的告白... (國泰期貨網站)

資料來源:http://www.onrich.com.tw/asp/bbs/option/showpage.asp?ClickID=1144
 
寫這篇文章 並不是要來炫耀 或是來拉會員
不想看的可以看到這行就好 我的目的 只是想讓涉世未深
一心想從選擇權發大財的人 告訴你們 不要只看到了選擇權的致富夢
卻忽略了也可能讓你一無所有的下場
我在這個市場已經有七年了 從股票 權證 期貨 到選擇權
有嘗過苦也享受到美好
安德列托斯科蘭尼說得非常好 一個在股票市場成功的人
一輩子也曾在市場上摔倒好幾次
我想 只要在這個市場中夠久的人 到現在還存活的人 也一定要摔倒過
我也曾經在這七年內 從有到無 但是假如你能不放棄自己
能留有自己能再爬起來的能力 那麼恭喜你 你還有翻身機會
如果你是那種一倒下去 就無法在東山再起的那型
那麼 我勸你還是提早離開這個市場 因為這是一個非常殘酷的市場
不要不相信 這真是一個二八法則的市場 百分之八十的人一定會賠錢
而且賠得錢會落入另外百分之二十的人的口袋
看到這裡 我相信有有人心動了
因為每個人都期待妄想著自己要變成那20%的人
不過我也必須非常明確地告訴你 如果沒有判斷的能力
再加上與常人不同的sense 那麼 你還是永遠不能擠進這20%裡
這個市場裡 沒有真正的專家 只有贏家與輸家
你賺到了錢 那麼你就是贏家 賠了錢 就算是頂著投資學博士的人
也只是一個"失敗的輸家"
不要不信 在我認識的營業員中 曾經告訴我
他們的客戶 有修理機車的"黑手" 從五十萬賺到一千萬
也有某國立大學博士班 開戶入金後三天被斷頭的案例
不要不信 這是千真萬確的 如果那些自以為是的博碩士
再去用一些繁亂無序的理論來操作 那麼我相信你肯定會被市場所淘汰
當然我不是批評所有的博碩士都無法賺到錢 而是要告訴你們
有時候 理論只不過是理論 如果這些理論有用
那麼今年六月份選擇權的時間套利 絕對不會發生
如果理論有用 那麼現在本益比創歷史新低的台股 不會跌跌不休
如果有興趣的人 可以去查寶來今年期權王大賽的月績效及總績效的排名狀況
大家會發現一個十分有趣的現象 把每個月前五名給抓出來研究
發現來年度總績效還可以排名在裡面的人 真的是寥寥無幾
這代表這什麼現象? 這個月你賺到了錢 不代表你永遠都能賺錢
持之以恆穩定的獲利 才是真正的王道
個人一直都是排在總績效第一 上星期第一次被超越過
不過我是真的非常佩服那個新冠軍 因為他每個月都不一定可排上三名內
但是卻都能一直穩定地獲利 這樣的操作手法與模式
才是大家要學者的對象
如果有在注意這個比賽的人 也應該會發現 我從今年七月後
績效就一直撐在那邊 沒有進場操作
其實這是有些考量 第一是為了績效的考量 持盈保態
第二是因為手續費的考量 我轉換到其他家期貨商
不過這不是重點 最重要的是 我相信這些累積績效能排名在十名內的人
肯定都不是單月排名的英雄 而是要不斷穩定地獲利 才是真正成功的關鍵
這是一個非常殘酷的市場 輸了 可能永無翻身之地
我知道很多散戶都夢想的以小博大 好不容易有了一二十萬的積蓄
就壓根全部壓下去 好像在壓樂透一樣 根本沒有判斷的能力
幾個營業員中 常跟我聊天 從他們第一線 可以聽到與看出
這個市場每天都有新的進入者 每天有都固定有人會從市場上消失
如何讓自己成為那些永遠活在市場的人 才是真正的高手
據他們統計 單純玩選擇權的散戶 從開戶開使 一個月後約有一半的人會消失
(當然必須開戶後要有交易)
能撐過三個月的人 通常這些人就是真正能賺到錢的能
不過很殘酷的是 只剩20% 的人
大家都知道選擇權可以以小博大 可以創造數十倍獲利
沒錯 真的是有 不過我也必須跟大家說 這些人只佔少數
大部份的人都是傾家蕩產!
如果再用那種心態 幻想著自己要從選擇權賺到十倍的人
那麼我必須告訴你 結果通常是與事實相反的
今天 我無法去告訴大家我操作選擇權的模式是怎樣
因為不會有固定模式 關鍵點就是你判斷大盤的未來走勢
與本身對於盤面的一種特定的sense 這才是獨特的特質
另外 選擇權市場最忌諱凹單及帶進主觀判斷
另外就是不懂得停損 如果你以上幾點都可做到 那麼恭喜你
你很有機會可以在市場上生存久一點
我聽過太多例子 散戶喜歡當買方凹單的例子
因為大家都夢想著要數倍獲利 根本沒想到時間價值及趨勢判斷錯誤的風險
這一年來 國際股市不斷創新高 很多人都一直夢想著台股要跟進
從端午變盤到中秋變盤 媒體怎麼喊 散戶也跟著喊
因此都不斷地壓call 壓到最後就是全軍覆沒
不要騙我 在大家看我文章看到這裡的同時
肯定有很多人就是我所謂的那些死多頭
這些人一直用國際股市來自慰自己
根本忽略了其他的判斷 不去做功課 人云亦云
這樣的人 是永遠不會成功的
壓買方是成功的必然要件 我相信能在總績效排名十名內的
也都是從當買方獲利才能有今天三五倍的獲利
但是絕對不是盲目地全壓 如果用這種方式下壓
運氣好這個月讓你賺兩三倍 下個月肯定讓你全吐會去
我不是在吐嘈別人 大家有興趣去翻四月份冠軍
績效達百分之一千多 如果那個投資人聰明的話
把績效放著 現在排名都還是前三名
但是你去查總績效 他卻是遠離領先群
這真的代表長而穩定的獲利 才是市場不二法則
我過去在版上寫過很多文章 有對有錯
不過每一篇真的都是我出於我專業的判斷所寫出
有些人或許也常吐嘲我 當然我不會在一這些
因為我相信績效才是一切的證明
我有統計過 雖然我在七月後離開寶來
把績效維持在八百多
但是我之後在其他期貨商依舊是穩定成長狀態
如果把手續費 稅金累計(寶來的算法是手續費交易稅都列為績效)
我今年已經達2000%以上 這不是炫耀也不是虎人的
我也不會想招會員 大家也不必寫信給我
只想跟大家說 十倍的獲利 是真的有這樣的人
但是 傾家蕩產的人 遠遠大於十倍獲利的人
如果踏入選擇權市場 第一個心態就已經錯誤了
那麼你離20%的人 會愈來愈遠 離80%的人 會愈來愈近
寫這篇文章 相信也好 不信也好
因為我不會再去跟大家辯解 我不是拉會員 那些批評我的人
也不必要求要我拿出證明 我不需用這種方式來證明我寫的一切
任何人要批評我之前 請你們捫心自問
因為 今天真正能夠批評我的人
就只有那個總績效上星期超過我的那位
因為他真的有自己判斷的能力
板上很多是學生 還年輕有機會可以拼
而一些省吃儉用累積一些錢的網友
不要在執迷與幻想著選擇權的夢
因為你們經不起一次的失敗
一旦失敗 肯定是一無所有
而且失敗的機率大大地高過成功的機率
就這樣 希望這篇冗長的文章對於大家有所幫助

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  • 1月 22 週日 200600:44
  • 2006.01.21工商時報 寶來天下第一期權王 冠軍去年大賺 8.5倍

資料來源:http://news.chinatimes.com/Chinatimes/newslist/newslist-content-forprint/0,4066,120508+122006012100460,00.html
 

寶來天下第一期權王 冠軍去年大賺 8.5倍

陳淑泰/台北報導

    去年台股除了十一、十二月波動較明顯之外,其餘月分幾乎呈「水平線」,期市交易人獲利難豐;不過在寶來瑞富期貨主辦的「天下第一期權王」大賽中,「精準王」用十五萬元資金投入比賽,扣除交易稅及手續費後,實際獲利一百四十五萬元,獲利率高達八.五倍,也順利抱走一百萬元的獎金。


    抱走一百萬元的精準王表示,他堅守資金控管,不用壓寶方式做單,也不亂壓結算,所以從未得過月冠軍,但相對也因他報酬率穩定,獲利逐月累積,最後才脫穎而出。第二、三名的本金分別為二十三萬及三十萬,實際獲利率亦達七.五及七倍,三個人都是選擇權的玩家,相對於狹幅盤整的現貨市場,選擇權以小搏大的優勢發揮得淋漓盡致。


    前三名得主皆表示,現在國內證券及期貨市場已是主力法人主導的局面,操作上,應該以觀察主力心態為準,只要跟得上法人腳步、就有機會成為贏家。長線需隨著趨勢來作單,短線則順著盤勢來進出;此外,風險控管也是期權操作相當重要的一環。只要掌握這些原則,你也能在詭譎多變的期權市場中,持盈保泰。

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  • 1月 17 週二 200623:34
  • January 17, 2006 An Early Start on the Road to Riches

資料來源: http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/millionaire/2238?p=1
An Early Start on the Road to Riches
by David Bach
Tuesday, January 17, 2006
My grandmother, Rose Bach, was an amazing woman. A career woman at a time
when most women weren't, she eventually became a self-made millionaire by
teaching herself how to invest in stocks. She also changed my life by
teaching me at a very young age how to invest, thus starting me on the road
to financial success.
I received my first lesson from her when I was seven. We were having lunch
one day at McDonalds's when she put down her Big Mac and said, "David, I
want you to go ask the woman at the counter if McDonald's is publicly
traded."
Publicly what?
I didn't know what she was talking about, and I had no intention of asking
the woman at the counter such a weird question
But Grandma was adamant. "Go ask, and I'll give you a buck," she said. Back
then, a buck was a lot of money, so I ran to the counter to find out what
she wanted.
The woman at the counter didn't know what to make of a seven-year-old
asking, "Are you publicly traded?" So she got the manager. He asked me what
the problem was, and when I explained that Grandma wanted to know if
McDonald's was publicly traded, he said, "Well, let's go talk to her."
He escorted me back to Grandma, introduced himself, and explained that
McDonald's was publicly traded -- on the New York Stock Exchange, no less.
My grandmother smiled. "I know," she said. "I just wanted my grandson to
learn how to ask!"
Spenders, Workers, and Owners
After the manager left, my grandmother told me something that would change
my thinking and my life forever. "David," she said, "there are three types
of people in the world. There are those who come to a restaurant like we did
today and eat the cheeseburgers and fries. We call them spenders. Then there
are who make the food and wash the dishes at a place like McDonald's for
minimum wage. We call them workers. Finally, there are those who sell the
burgers and pay the workers. We call them owners."
She looked at me closely. "You can always be someone who spends money at a
place like McDonald's. And when you get older you can always get a job at a
place like McDonald's and work for minimum wage."
She paused and took my face in her hands. "Or you can be smart and own the
place. My dream for you is to be smart and own the place."
Owning a McDonald's struck me as a great idea. "My own McDonald's!"
Opportunity Is Always Around Us
As we drove home from McDonald's, my grandmother explained to me what I
later realized was the key to her financial success: "Everywhere you go,"
she told me, "there's money to be made -- if you keep your eyes and ears
open. When you went to McDonald's today, you were a customer. You paid to
eat there. What you should have noticed is that you weren't the only one
doing that. Millions of people like you eat at McDonald's every day. The
secret to getting rich is to recognize a successful business when you see it
and make it a goal to become an owner."
That night, Grandma Bach showed me how to look up McDonald's in the
newspaper stock tables. She promised that if I saved up my allowance and
birthday money, she would help me buy one share of McDonald's. "Then you'll
be an owner of McDonald's," she said, "and every time you and your friends
eat there, you'll be happy knowing you're making money."
Later that year, I bought my first stock -- a single share in McDonald's. A
year or so later, I bought my second -- one share of The Walt Disney Co.
Over the years, my little investment in McDonald's has done pretty well. I
only wish I'd had enough money back then to buy more than one share. A smart
investor who shelled out the $2,250 it would have taken to buy 100 shares of
McDonald's back in the mid-1960s would today own some 74,360 shares, with a
total value of more than $2.5 million.
But more important than how well my first stock pick did is the lesson my
grandmother taught me. Opportunity is always around us. You can spend, work,
or own. Owners get rich.
Start Your Kids' Money Education Early
Grandma started teaching me about investing when I was seven. Kids are even
smarter today. You can start them even younger. How can you tell if a child
is ready to learn about money? Put a $10 bill in one hand and a $1 bill in
the other. Then ask them which one they want. If they are smart enough to
choose the $10 bill, they're ready to be taught.
Teach them what you've learned about money from your own personal
experience, the bad as well as the good. If you had a bad experience with
credit-card debt, share that with your kids. If your home has been a great
investment, share how and why that is. Above all, teach a child you love how
to see, hear, and notice opportunity.
And don't just tell your kids stories. Get them started saving and
investing. Take them to the bank and open a savings account for them. Better
yet, buy them a share of stock in a company that makes something they're
interested in. You can buy a limited amount of shares through almost all of
the major online brokerage firms. If you want to invest regularly for your
child and keep it inexpensive, check out Web sites like
www.sharebuilder.com, www.ameritrade.com or www.tdwaterhouse.com. They make
investing automatically in stocks or index funds easy and affordable online.
If you happen to have a financial advisor, take your child with you the next
time you have a meeting. It may sound far-fetched, but this sort of thing
can be a life-changing experience for a kid. And as a former practitioner
myself, I can tell you that most financial advisors will be happy to help
you teach your kids and get an investment account set up for them.
Financial education is the gift that keeps on giving. The mistake in our
school systems is that we don't make teaching about money mandatory. For our
kids' sake, it should be. Until it is, do it yourself.
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  • 個人分類:產業新聞
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  • 1月 10 週二 200622:39
  • 2006/1/10工商時報 G10央行總裁 看升景氣

資料來源:http://news.chinatimes.com/Chinatimes/newslist/newslist-content-forprint/0,4066,120504+122006011000454,00.html
 
1.G10央行會議主席,歐洲央行總裁特里榭在記者會上表示,全球經濟成長截至目前一直承受得住油價攀升的壓力,而G10各國央行總裁都未排除今年全球經濟成長率將略高於去年的可能性
 
2.特里榭提醒,前述看法係假設油價維持在當今水平,除了油價,全球經濟發展不均以及不確定性都是全球經濟今後將遭遇的風險
 
3.特里榭表示,G10央行總裁們論及債券殖利率曲線幾無起伏以及實質長期利率低檔的議題,雖然大家對於原因並無共識,但他們都注意到企業部門投資不足現象,而新興市場經濟也長期呈現投資卻步,亞洲在金融危機後尤其如此,近來,有跡象透露投資正在回升,企業部門較為明顯。

 


4.特里榭指出,由於國際貿易協議近來屢獲進展,因此保護主義不再對國際貿易構成太大威脅,但G10央行總裁們認為,避免保護主義是很重要的,這尤其關乎全球經濟中長期成長


 

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  • 個人分類:央行新聞
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  • 1月 08 週日 200600:15
  • 2006/1/6 IHT:Internet companies gear up to transform television

資料來源:http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/01/06/business/video.php
 
1.Instead of tuning into programs preset and determined by the broadcast
network or cable or satellite TV provider, viewers would be able to search
the Internet and choose from hundreds of thousands of programs sent to them
from high-speed connections
 
2.At the International Consumer Electronics Show here this week, a future
dominated by Internet TV, or IPTV, seemed possible, maybe even inevitable
 
3.Giants like Yahoo and Google turned their attention to offering new Internet
programming. Hardware companies like Intel introduced chips and platforms
that can push videos sent via an Internet connection to living-room screens.
And Microsoft looked for alliances that would enable its software to
dominate living rooms as well as the home office
 
 
4."Appointment-based television is dead," "The cable industry is really in danger of becoming
commoditized."
 
5.In the battle for the living room, cable and satellite and, increasingly,
phone companies are trying to defend their turf by offering customers more
choice through a broader array of content in video-on-demand programs
 
6.Potentially, IPTV could replace the 100- or 500-channel world of the cable and satellite
companies with millions of hybrid combinations that increasingly blend
video, text from the Web, and even video-game-style interactivity.
 
7.But the advantage of IPTV is that it could potentially be deployed at lower
cost than current cable television systems and can offer consumers features
like the ability to record several programs simultaneously without having to
add costly additional tuners
 
8.Companies like Apple, Google, Intel, Microsoft, Yahoo and others are all
beginning to make available an ever widening array of video content that
looks more like a world of five million channels rather than 50 or even 500
 
9.On Thursday, Intel introduced its new ViiV computer design that is intended
to bring the capability of the personal computer to the living room. ViiV is
a set of computer hardware and software technologies that will go inside
computers and set-top boxes.
10.Several hundred consumer electronics and computer companies announced plans
to build ViiV-based systems, and Otellini said that more than 100 companies,
including AOL, ESPN, MTV, NBC and Turner Broadcasting, would offer digital
content to be played on ViiV-based systems
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  • 個人分類:產業新聞
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  • 1月 07 週六 200621:55
  • 2006/1/7 工商社論 嬰兒潮世代退休儲蓄的龐大錢潮何處去?

資料來源:http://money.chinatimes.com/news/forum/m9510701.htm
 
1.剛過世不久的管理學大師彼得杜拉克,在其著作「下一個社會」中明確指出,廿一世紀前半期,全球有三個最重要的趨勢,分別是:人口結構變遷、全球化及知識經濟興起。他指出,已開發國家在二戰結束後出現龐大的嬰兒潮,此一世代將逐漸進入退休階段,如何投資、儲蓄,解決「養老」問題,值得探討
 
2.有一派學者提出「資產市場融化(asset market meltdown)論」,持悲觀看法,他們認為過去廿年,嬰兒潮世代努力工作、儲蓄、投資,建立財富供養老之需,使股票、房地產甚至債市表現均甚為優異,遠超過歷史上其它世代。但未來嬰兒潮世代龐大人口將大量退休,出售資產換取資金供養老、消費所需,由於退休的人數眾多,少子化卻使未來生產者減少,將造成退休老人面臨不利的交換條件,亦即資產須降價求售。但也有另一派學者指出,金融市場具有前瞻性機制,在決定資產的價格時,就已將嬰兒潮人口高齡化的因素考慮進去
 
3.西元二千年爆發的全球科技股泡沬,有許多人認為是重大警訊,全球經濟及股市將進入長期的空頭市場。但隨後全球經濟卻展現令人意外的韌性與活力。二○○三至二○○五年,連續三年全球各國經濟普遍復甦,股市及房地產表現亮眼,「資產市場融化論」的悲觀預測,似並未發生
 
4.誠如彼得杜拉克所說,除人口結構變遷外,未來五十年還有全球化及知識經濟盛行,兩大趨勢沛然莫之能禦。全球化使許多企業可移轉生產基地並擴張市場,除大幅降低成本外,生產者與消費者(包括退休老年人)都因此普遍受惠;有能力全球化的公司,獲利大幅增加,振興經濟與股市。另方面一般個人也可使用新的資訊與通訊科技,進行知識與科技創新。微軟、Google就是最成功的案例。知識經濟取代勞力經濟,不但加速創新活動,提高生產力,也使知識工作者可大幅延後退休年齡,有效降低退休帶來的財務負擔。延後「資產市場融化論」者所指負面效果發生的時間
 
5.過去幾年許多人唱衰美國經濟與美元幣值,主要理由是美國財政赤字與經常帳赤字持續擴大。因美國儲蓄率太低,形同政府與民間向各國舉債,支應消費。此種情況很難持久
 
6.但若檢視彼得杜拉克所提出廿一世紀三大潮流,則美國居於明顯優勢地位。因為美國婦女總生育率目前仍達二.一人,在七大工業國居第一,人口數量仍將持續成長,勞力供應相對充沛。而美國企業全球化程度最高,知識經濟的發展速度,也是全球之冠。例如成立僅數年的Goog le,總市值已逾一千億美元,與印尼全部上市公司的總市值相當,這就是美國經濟競爭力所在
 
7.美元、英語及微軟-Google形成的三大平台,已成為全球商務運作的核心,美國經濟受惠於此甚多
 
8.美國下任聯準會主席柏內克即指出,現今美國之外,全球其它國家都有「超額儲蓄」,形成有效需求不足,美國只好多消費、吸納過剩生產,使全球經濟免於衰退,代價是美國長期出現經常帳逆差
 
9.全球超額儲蓄升高,主因是人口快速老化;至於全球性生產過剩,主因則是經貿全球化所致。我們估計未來數年此種情況將持續,因而嬰兒潮世代應把養老儲蓄,投資在人口結構相對較年輕,且能及時迎合全球化及知識經濟的國家
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  • 個人分類:產業新聞
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  • 1月 07 週六 200621:27
  • 寒冬"游"

外面細雨紛飛
攝氏約十度氣溫中
到游泳池游泳
真是特別
下水後發現整座池只有一個人在活動
沒人跟你搶水道
沒人跟你搶SPA
沒人跟你搶置物櫃
 
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