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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/economy/fedwatch.html1.Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the U.S. economy is poised for continued growth even after the shock of two hurricanes raised energy prices and increased the risk of broader inflation
聯邦準備理事會主席Graanspan表示即使經歷兩次颶風使能源價格上揚,且擴大通膨風險,美國經濟呈現自然的穩定成長
2.``The economic fundamentals remain firm, and the U.S. economy appears to retain important forward momentum,'' Greenspan told the Joint Economic Committee of Congress today. Longer-term prospects ``remain favorable,'' he said
Greenspan告訴聯合經濟委員會經濟基本面依然強勁,美國經濟顯示能維持前進的強勁動能,長期觀點來看依然樂觀
3.Greenspan, making one of his last appearances to lawmakers before his Fed term ends Jan. 31, said the U.S. is still increasing productivity and will get a boost from rebuilding after the Gulf Coast hurricanes. There is ``more uncertainty'' about inflation, he said, and economists expect the Fed to raise interest rates to stop energy costs from seeping into the prices of other goods and services.
Greenspan在1/31卸任前的其中一次對國會議員演講表示,美國生產力依然持續增加,在墨西哥灣的颶風後因重建生產力增加速度將加快,因此通膨的不確定性將更大;經濟學家預期Fed提升利率停止能源成本滲透至其他商品與服務
4.Greenspan said central banks have enjoyed ``a virtuous cycle of low prices and solid growth'' as the end of the Cold War added to the supply of world labor
Greenspan表示當冷戰結束後世界勞動供給增加使央行已經享有"低價格與固定成長的良性循環"
5.Greenspan, responding to a question from committee chairman James Saxton, said keeping core consumer price inflation between 1 percent and 2 percent ``appears to be a range which is really quite conducive to economic growth and the prosperities that were associated with that.''
Greenspan回應委員會主席James Saxton的一個問題表示,保持核心物價通膨率在1%至2%之間對於經濟成長能有相當的助益,而且此項政策對於經濟成長的繁榮是有關聯的
6.Greenspan said disruptions to energy production ``have noticeably affected economic activity.''
Greenspan表示能源生產的毀壞已經明顯影響經濟活動
7.``At present, natural gas supplies appear to be sufficient to meet the near-term demands -- even with some ongoing shortfall in Gulf production,'' Greenspan said. `However, a colder-than-average winter would stress this market, and prices will likely remain vulnerable to spikes this spring.''
Greenspan表示目前天然瓦斯供應顯示足夠符合短期需求,即使海灣一帶的生產短缺持續,然而寒冬將會使市場感受壓力,將會使價格在春季受到影響
8.Greenspan said any pass-through of energy costs into other prices ``will be subdued'' as long as the Fed ``is perceived to be holding inflation expectations in check.''
Greenspan表示當任何能源成本影響到其他商品價格,Fed將會察覺並使通膨預期受到控制
9.Lowering the deficit further in the near term ``will be difficult in light of the need to pay for post-hurricane reconstruction and relief,'' he said. ``Even apart from the hurricanes, our budget position is unlikely to improve substantially further until we restore constraints'' on spending, he said.
按照颶風後重建與救援的需求編列預算,在短期降低日益增加的預算赤字將會是困難的;除非我們恢復限制支出,否則即使去除颶風的因素,我們的預算編列本質上也不可能增加太多
10.``So long as health-care costs continue to grow faster than the economy as a whole, as seems likely, federal spending on health and retirement programs would rise at a rate that risks placing the budget on an unsustainable trajectory,'' Greenspan said
整體看來醫療成本持續成長速度已經超過經濟成長,似乎聯邦在醫療與退休制度的支出將會提升利率使預算編列在一個無法支撐軌道的風險
11.Unless this situation is reversed, the budget trends ``will cause serious economic disruptions.''
除非情況得到扭轉,預算走向將會導致嚴重的經濟瓦解
12.Greenspan said total wages hadn't suffered because of low-cost competition from India and China, although the incomes of workers producing goods, rather than services, had seen ``downward pressure.''
Greenspan表示雖然生產商品(非服務業)的工人的收入已經呈現下降壓力,總體薪資不致遭受損害,因為來自印度與中國是低成本的競爭
13.Greenspan, responding to a question, said the gap between short-term and long-term bond yields is no longer a good gauge of the health of the economy. ``The markets have become far more complex, and the simple relationships that the yield curve's slope indicated no longer worked,'' he said
Greenspan回應一個問題時表示,短期與長期債券殖利率的落差已不是好的標準衡量經濟是否健康,市場已經變的更雜化,簡單的債券殖利率曲線斜率的關係指出的意義已不能運作
